Player PoolWorld Cup 2026

Who they're most likely to meet

Ordered by chance to win it all (the number on the right of each row). Each round shows the chance to reach it, then the most likely opponents there — conditional on getting there.

Pre-tournament model · 10,000 sims
SpainH16.6% to win
Group
1st65%
2nd26%
3rd7%
4th2%
R32 (97%)
ARG33%
AUT31%
ALG23%
JOR8%
R16 (74%)
COL16%
POR15%
ENG15%
CRO12%
QF (56%)
BEL17%
USA10%
POR9%
TUR8%
SF (41%)
FRA19%
GER12%
NED12%
BRA11%
Final (26%)
ARG14%
ENG14%
POR13%
FRA12%
FranceI16.1% to win
Group
1st55%
2nd29%
3rd14%
4th3%
R32 (95%)
ECU11%
SWE10%
CIV10%
GER9%
R16 (76%)
GER25%
BRA15%
ECU8%
MAR8%
QF (55%)
NED15%
BRA11%
ENG11%
JPN8%
SF (39%)
ESP21%
POR12%
ARG12%
BEL8%
Final (26%)
ESP12%
POR12%
ENG11%
ARG11%
EnglandL10.4% to win
Group
1st56%
2nd27%
3rd12%
4th5%
R32 (93%)
COL23%
POR20%
RDC19%
UZB15%
R16 (69%)
MEX20%
ESP16%
CZE7%
URU6%
QF (50%)
BRA18%
FRA12%
NOR7%
GER7%
SF (31%)
POR16%
ARG15%
FRA8%
ESP7%
Final (19%)
ESP19%
FRA15%
BRA8%
POR8%
PortugalK10.1% to win
Group
1st54%
2nd30%
3rd12%
4th4%
R32 (94%)
CRO24%
GHA21%
ENG20%
PAN14%
R16 (68%)
SUI17%
ESP16%
CAN12%
ARG7%
QF (48%)
ARG23%
ESP11%
BEL10%
TUR8%
SF (32%)
ENG15%
FRA15%
BRA13%
GER9%
Final (19%)
ESP18%
FRA17%
ENG8%
BRA7%
ArgentinaJ8.5% to win
Group
1st57%
2nd27%
3rd12%
4th4%
R32 (94%)
URU35%
ESP34%
KSA11%
CPV10%
R16 (64%)
TUR12%
USA12%
BEL11%
EGY9%
QF (47%)
POR23%
COL10%
SUI8%
BEL7%
SF (30%)
ENG16%
FRA15%
BRA14%
GER9%
Final (17%)
ESP22%
FRA17%
POR8%
GER7%
BrazilC8.3% to win
Group
1st56%
2nd28%
3rd13%
4th3%
R32 (95%)
NED30%
JPN26%
SWE19%
TUN12%
R16 (64%)
FRA17%
NOR15%
GER10%
SEN9%
QF (45%)
ENG20%
FRA14%
GER10%
MEX8%
SF (26%)
ESP17%
POR16%
ARG16%
BEL7%
Final (15%)
ESP15%
FRA15%
ENG10%
POR8%
GermanyE5.7% to win
Group
1st53%
2nd29%
3rd15%
4th3%
R32 (95%)
NOR11%
SCO10%
SEN9%
FRA9%
R16 (67%)
FRA28%
NOR12%
BRA10%
JPN7%
QF (38%)
NED16%
BRA11%
ENG9%
JPN7%
SF (22%)
ESP23%
POR13%
ARG12%
BEL7%
Final (12%)
FRA15%
POR11%
ENG11%
ARG10%
NetherlandsF4.4% to win
Group
1st46%
2nd28%
3rd17%
4th9%
R32 (88%)
BRA33%
MAR28%
SCO19%
FRA7%
R16 (51%)
SUI11%
MEX11%
CAN10%
GER9%
QF (36%)
FRA23%
GER17%
ENG8%
NOR8%
SF (18%)
ESP26%
ARG11%
POR11%
BEL8%
Final (10%)
FRA14%
BRA12%
ENG12%
POR11%
BelgiumG2.7% to win
Group
1st59%
2nd25%
3rd12%
4th4%
R32 (94%)
KOR13%
CZE12%
RSA9%
USA8%
R16 (62%)
USA17%
TUR13%
ARG11%
PAR6%
QF (34%)
ESP28%
POR15%
ARG9%
COL9%
SF (15%)
FRA21%
BRA12%
GER11%
NED9%
Final (6%)
ENG14%
ESP14%
POR12%
FRA11%
NorwayI2.2% to win
Group
1st28%
2nd36%
3rd27%
4th9%
R32 (85%)
ECU15%
CIV14%
GER12%
SWE5%
R16 (52%)
BRA19%
GER15%
MAR8%
NED7%
QF (28%)
ENG13%
NED10%
BRA9%
MEX7%
SF (13%)
ESP16%
POR14%
ARG13%
ENG7%
Final (6%)
FRA19%
ESP15%
BRA9%
ARG8%
ColombiaK1.8% to win
Group
1st34%
2nd39%
3rd19%
4th8%
R32 (87%)
CRO27%
ENG25%
GHA20%
PAN13%
R16 (50%)
ESP24%
SUI12%
CAN9%
ARG8%
QF (26%)
ARG18%
BEL12%
USA9%
ESP9%
SF (13%)
FRA16%
ENG12%
BRA12%
GER8%
Final (5%)
FRA17%
ESP16%
POR12%
ENG8%
JapanF1.7% to win
Group
1st29%
2nd30%
3rd24%
4th17%
R32 (76%)
BRA33%
MAR25%
SCO16%
FRA11%
R16 (37%)
GER13%
NOR10%
SUI8%
FRA8%
QF (22%)
FRA19%
GER12%
ENG11%
NED7%
SF (10%)
ESP24%
ARG12%
POR11%
BEL10%
Final (4%)
POR13%
ENG12%
FRA12%
BRA11%
MexicoA1.6% to win
Group
1st51%
2nd27%
3rd15%
4th7%
R32 (91%)
CAN10%
SUI10%
CIV9%
ECU7%
R16 (55%)
ENG25%
NED10%
CRO9%
JPN6%
QF (23%)
FRA18%
BRA16%
GER11%
NOR9%
SF (9%)
ARG16%
POR15%
ESP14%
BEL5%
Final (4%)
ESP16%
FRA13%
ENG10%
POR9%
United StatesD1.4% to win
Group
1st40%
2nd29%
3rd20%
4th12%
R32 (84%)
BIH12%
EGY11%
IRN10%
BEL9%
R16 (49%)
BEL21%
ARG16%
URU8%
ESP7%
QF (23%)
ESP24%
POR16%
COL10%
ENG8%
SF (10%)
FRA17%
BRA12%
GER11%
NED9%
Final (4%)
FRA15%
ESP12%
ENG11%
ARG10%
MoroccoC1.4% to win
Group
1st28%
2nd38%
3rd27%
4th8%
R32 (86%)
NED29%
JPN22%
SWE16%
TUN9%
R16 (38%)
FRA15%
NOR11%
SUI8%
GER7%
QF (19%)
FRA17%
GER13%
ENG11%
NOR8%
SF (8%)
ESP21%
ARG16%
POR13%
BEL9%
Final (4%)
ESP14%
FRA14%
BRA12%
POR9%
TürkiyeD1.1% to win
Group
1st31%
2nd30%
3rd23%
4th17%
R32 (77%)
EGY12%
IRN11%
BIH10%
BEL10%
R16 (44%)
BEL18%
ARG18%
ESP8%
URU7%
QF (21%)
ESP20%
POR19%
COL8%
ENG8%
SF (8%)
FRA19%
BRA13%
NED10%
ENG9%
Final (3%)
FRA15%
ESP11%
ENG10%
POR9%
Congo DRK0.5% to win
Group
1st8%
2nd18%
3rd38%
4th37%
R32 (48%)
ENG38%
CRO29%
GHA17%
PAN10%
R16 (14%)
ESP23%
MEX12%
URU7%
ARG7%
QF (4%)
BRA12%
ARG12%
BEL10%
TUR7%
SF (2%)
FRA17%
POR13%
ENG9%
GER8%
Final (1%)
POR15%
FRA15%
ENG13%
ESP10%
CzechiaA0.5% to win
Group
1st22%
2nd29%
3rd29%
4th21%
R32 (71%)
BEL16%
CAN14%
SUI13%
BIH10%
R16 (31%)
ENG15%
NED13%
BRA8%
JPN7%
QF (9%)
FRA17%
ESP12%
GER11%
BRA9%
SF (3%)
ESP14%
ARG13%
POR9%
BEL9%
Final (1%)
POR12%
ARG11%
GER10%
FRA9%
UruguayH0.5% to win
Group
1st27%
2nd45%
3rd19%
4th9%
R32 (86%)
ARG38%
AUT24%
ALG16%
JOR5%
R16 (36%)
ENG12%
USA10%
TUR9%
COL9%
QF (16%)
POR19%
BEL10%
COL8%
SUI7%
SF (6%)
FRA16%
ENG13%
BRA11%
NED8%
Final (2%)
ESP18%
FRA11%
ENG9%
GER8%
Bosnia-HerzegovinaB0.5% to win
Group
1st14%
2nd25%
3rd38%
4th23%
R32 (65%)
USA16%
TUR12%
CZE11%
KOR11%
R16 (29%)
BEL13%
NED12%
POR11%
BRA8%
QF (9%)
ESP19%
FRA12%
ARG11%
GER7%
SF (3%)
FRA12%
ESP11%
BRA10%
GER9%
Final (1%)
POR14%
FRA11%
ENG11%
GER10%
CroatiaL0.4% to win
Group
1st28%
2nd37%
3rd23%
4th13%
R32 (81%)
COL29%
POR28%
RDC17%
UZB13%
R16 (39%)
ESP24%
MEX12%
URU8%
ARG8%
QF (17%)
BRA12%
BEL10%
ARG8%
FRA8%
SF (6%)
FRA13%
ARG10%
POR9%
GER8%
Final (2%)
FRA17%
ENG13%
POR13%
ESP10%
SwitzerlandB0.4% to win
Group
1st45%
2nd32%
3rd17%
4th6%
R32 (90%)
CZE10%
KOR10%
MEX10%
IRN9%
R16 (53%)
POR22%
COL11%
NED11%
BRA6%
QF (20%)
ARG20%
ESP13%
FRA10%
GER7%
SF (7%)
ENG13%
FRA11%
BRA11%
ESP10%
Final (2%)
ESP15%
FRA12%
ENG11%
ARG8%
SwedenF0.4% to win
Group
1st17%
2nd25%
3rd31%
4th27%
R32 (62%)
BRA30%
MAR22%
FRA16%
SCO13%
R16 (25%)
GER16%
FRA10%
NOR9%
ECU8%
QF (13%)
FRA15%
ENG12%
GER10%
NED9%
SF (5%)
ESP23%
POR14%
ARG11%
BEL8%
Final (1%)
ESP14%
ENG13%
ARG11%
FRA10%
IraqI0.4% to win
Group
1st2%
2nd6%
3rd19%
4th74%
R32 (16%)
ECU13%
ENG12%
GER10%
CIV10%
R16 (6%)
BRA17%
MAR7%
NED7%
GER6%
QF (2%)
ENG12%
ESP11%
BRA7%
NED5%
SF (1%)
ARG15%
ESP10%
FRA10%
NED9%
Final (1%)
FRA19%
ESP18%
ARG9%
POR9%
EcuadorE0.4% to win
Group
1st27%
2nd36%
3rd30%
4th8%
R32 (85%)
NOR15%
SEN12%
FRA12%
MEX8%
R16 (36%)
FRA17%
BRA14%
NOR8%
JPN7%
QF (12%)
ENG11%
BRA11%
NED10%
MEX7%
SF (4%)
ESP18%
ARG15%
POR13%
BEL7%
Final (1%)
FRA15%
ESP13%
ENG12%
POR10%
SenegalI0.3% to win
Group
1st15%
2nd29%
3rd41%
4th15%
R32 (74%)
ECU14%
CIV12%
GER11%
ENG8%
R16 (32%)
BRA18%
GER9%
MAR8%
NED6%
QF (12%)
ENG12%
BRA9%
ESP8%
NED8%
SF (4%)
POR14%
ESP12%
ARG12%
FRA9%
Final (1%)
FRA18%
ENG12%
ARG11%
POR9%
AustriaJ0.2% to win
Group
1st25%
2nd36%
3rd27%
4th12%
R32 (80%)
ESP37%
URU26%
KSA6%
CPV6%
R16 (29%)
POR14%
COL10%
USA8%
ENG8%
QF (12%)
POR16%
ARG11%
BEL10%
COL7%
SF (3%)
FRA17%
BRA15%
ENG10%
NED9%
Final (1%)
ARG20%
FRA14%
ESP13%
GER9%
CanadaB0.2% to win
Group
1st38%
2nd33%
3rd20%
4th8%
R32 (87%)
KOR11%
CZE11%
MEX10%
IRN7%
R16 (45%)
POR19%
NED11%
COL10%
BRA7%
QF (14%)
ARG19%
ESP14%
FRA11%
GER8%
SF (3%)
ENG17%
FRA9%
ESP9%
BRA9%
Final (1%)
FRA14%
POR13%
ESP10%
BRA9%
Ivory CoastE0.2% to win
Group
1st18%
2nd31%
3rd39%
4th12%
R32 (79%)
NOR14%
SEN11%
FRA11%
MEX10%
R16 (29%)
FRA14%
BRA13%
ENG11%
NOR7%
QF (8%)
BRA13%
ENG9%
NED8%
ESP6%
SF (3%)
POR15%
ESP14%
ARG12%
ENG7%
Final (1%)
ESP13%
FRA13%
ENG10%
GER9%
ScotlandC0.1% to win
Group
1st14%
2nd28%
3rd40%
4th18%
R32 (70%)
NED25%
JPN18%
GER14%
SWE12%
R16 (23%)
FRA17%
NOR10%
ENG7%
SUI6%
QF (8%)
FRA20%
GER13%
BRA10%
NED9%
SF (2%)
ARG19%
ESP19%
POR13%
COL7%
Final (1%)
POR15%
FRA13%
BRA13%
ESP10%
EgyptG0.1% to win
Group
1st21%
2nd32%
3rd28%
4th18%
R32 (73%)
TUR13%
USA13%
PAR11%
SUI10%
R16 (32%)
ARG19%
POR8%
USA8%
ESP8%
QF (11%)
ESP20%
POR16%
ARG11%
COL10%
SF (3%)
FRA16%
BRA14%
ENG13%
GER11%
Final (1%)
ESP12%
POR10%
BRA10%
FRA10%
South KoreaA0.1% to win
Group
1st20%
2nd29%
3rd29%
4th22%
R32 (69%)
BEL17%
CAN14%
SUI13%
BIH10%
R16 (31%)
NED14%
ENG13%
JPN8%
MAR8%
QF (9%)
FRA18%
ESP13%
GER11%
BRA8%
SF (2%)
ESP16%
ARG10%
BEL9%
FRA8%
Final (1%)
BRA13%
FRA13%
ENG11%
POR10%
AustraliaD0.1% to win
Group
1st10%
2nd17%
3rd28%
4th46%
R32 (44%)
GER15%
EGY12%
IRN12%
BEL9%
R16 (18%)
ARG19%
BEL11%
ESP9%
URU8%
QF (5%)
ESP18%
POR18%
COL10%
ENG8%
SF (1%)
FRA17%
BRA10%
ENG10%
GER9%
Final (0%)
ESP21%
FRA18%
ARG9%
ENG9%
UzbekistanK0.1% to win
Group
1st5%
2nd13%
3rd32%
4th51%
R32 (35%)
ENG41%
CRO29%
GHA16%
PAN10%
R16 (8%)
ESP23%
MEX11%
URU8%
ARG7%
QF (2%)
BRA16%
ARG11%
USA7%
BEL7%
SF (1%)
FRA17%
BRA12%
GER11%
ENG9%
Final (0%)
ENG18%
ESP18%
ARG14%
POR9%
ParaguayD0.1% to win
Group
1st20%
2nd24%
3rd30%
4th26%
R32 (65%)
EGY12%
GER11%
IRN11%
BEL9%
R16 (25%)
ARG20%
BEL15%
URU8%
ESP7%
QF (7%)
ESP19%
POR18%
COL10%
ENG9%
SF (2%)
FRA16%
BRA13%
NED11%
GER10%
Final (0%)
FRA16%
ESP13%
GER13%
ARG13%
AlgeriaJ0.1% to win
Group
1st15%
2nd27%
3rd35%
4th23%
R32 (65%)
ESP34%
URU21%
SUI9%
CAN8%
R16 (24%)
POR17%
COL12%
CRO8%
USA7%
QF (10%)
ARG13%
POR12%
ESP10%
BEL8%
SF (2%)
FRA21%
ENG12%
BRA11%
GER8%
Final (1%)
FRA17%
ESP15%
ARG15%
ENG8%
South AfricaA0.1% to win
Group
1st7%
2nd15%
3rd27%
4th50%
R32 (38%)
BEL23%
SUI13%
CAN13%
BIH10%
R16 (12%)
NED15%
ENG10%
USA8%
JPN8%
QF (2%)
ESP17%
FRA16%
GER14%
ARG5%
SF (1%)
ARG11%
ESP9%
KOR8%
FRA8%
Final (0%)
ESP27%
BRA20%
FRA13%
ENG13%
GhanaL0.0% to win
Group
1st10%
2nd22%
3rd35%
4th32%
R32 (55%)
POR36%
COL32%
RDC14%
UZB10%
R16 (17%)
ESP22%
ARG9%
SUI8%
MEX8%
QF (5%)
ARG15%
BRA9%
BEL9%
USA8%
SF (2%)
FRA14%
BRA11%
POR7%
ENG7%
Final (0%)
FRA26%
BRA22%
ENG15%
ESP11%
TunisiaF0.0% to win
Group
1st8%
2nd17%
3rd28%
4th47%
R32 (42%)
BRA28%
MAR19%
FRA19%
SCO10%
R16 (11%)
GER19%
FRA11%
NOR10%
ECU8%
QF (4%)
FRA12%
GER11%
NED9%
ENG9%
SF (1%)
ESP25%
POR12%
ARG9%
ENG9%
Final (0%)
ARG15%
BRA11%
FRA11%
GER11%
IranG0.0% to win
Group
1st15%
2nd29%
3rd32%
4th24%
R32 (65%)
TUR13%
USA13%
SUI13%
PAR11%
R16 (22%)
ARG19%
POR10%
ESP8%
URU7%
QF (5%)
ESP17%
POR15%
ARG14%
COL9%
SF (1%)
FRA19%
GER10%
BRA10%
NOR9%
Final (0%)
BRA19%
POR15%
ESP12%
GER12%
New ZealandG0.0% to win
Group
1st6%
2nd14%
3rd28%
4th53%
R32 (34%)
SUI15%
CAN14%
TUR12%
USA12%
R16 (11%)
ARG18%
POR15%
ESP8%
COL8%
QF (3%)
ESP18%
POR15%
ARG11%
COL9%
SF (1%)
ENG13%
FRA12%
NED10%
BRA9%
Final (0%)
ARG17%
POR17%
COL11%
FRA11%
Saudi ArabiaH0.0% to win
Group
1st4%
2nd15%
3rd37%
4th45%
R32 (38%)
ARG26%
MEX15%
AUT13%
BEL8%
R16 (10%)
ENG19%
TUR9%
USA9%
CRO9%
QF (3%)
POR14%
BRA8%
COL8%
SUI6%
SF (1%)
POR10%
ENG10%
ARG10%
BRA9%
Final (0%)
ESP29%
POR21%
BRA14%
MEX7%
QatarB0.0% to win
Group
1st3%
2nd9%
3rd25%
4th63%
R32 (25%)
USA20%
TUR16%
KOR11%
CZE11%
R16 (5%)
BEL20%
NED10%
BRA9%
JPN7%
QF (1%)
ESP23%
ARG18%
POR9%
GER8%
SF (0%)
FRA25%
ESP13%
BRA13%
GER13%
Final (0%)
ENG33%
BRA33%
ALG33%
PanamaL0.0% to win
Group
1st5%
2nd14%
3rd30%
4th51%
R32 (36%)
POR38%
COL33%
RDC14%
UZB9%
R16 (9%)
ESP25%
ARG9%
SUI9%
CAN8%
QF (2%)
ARG17%
BEL12%
ESP8%
TUR7%
SF (1%)
FRA16%
ENG13%
NED11%
BRA11%
Final (0%)
FRA19%
BRA13%
POR13%
ENG13%
Cape VerdeH0.0% to win
Group
1st4%
2nd14%
3rd37%
4th45%
R32 (36%)
ARG25%
MEX15%
AUT13%
ALG9%
R16 (7%)
ENG20%
TUR10%
USA9%
CRO7%
QF (1%)
POR14%
ESP8%
COL8%
BRA7%
SF (0%)
FRA22%
ENG12%
BRA10%
ARG7%
Final (0%)
MEX14%
BRA14%
ESP14%
POR14%
HaitiC0.0% to win
Group
1st2%
2nd6%
3rd20%
4th72%
R32 (17%)
NED20%
GER20%
JPN13%
ECU10%
R16 (5%)
FRA20%
ENG11%
NOR9%
MEX7%
QF (1%)
FRA22%
BRA11%
NED9%
GER8%
SF (0%)
ESP30%
POR15%
ENG15%
BEL9%
Final (0%)
ARG25%
ENG25%
BRA13%
FRA13%
CuracaoE0.0% to win
Group
1st1%
2nd4%
3rd16%
4th78%
R32 (13%)
MEX16%
NOR12%
SEN10%
FRA8%
R16 (2%)
ENG15%
CRO9%
BRA8%
NOR6%
QF (0%)
BRA27%
ARG15%
NOR12%
FRA8%
SF (0%)
POR29%
ARG29%
FRA14%
IRN14%
Final (0%)
BEL50%
MEX50%
JordanJ0.0% to win
Group
1st4%
2nd10%
3rd25%
4th61%
R32 (26%)
ESP28%
URU17%
SUI12%
CAN11%
R16 (5%)
POR23%
COL13%
CRO7%
ENG7%
QF (1%)
ESP23%
ARG14%
POR9%
SUI8%
SF (0%)
GER25%
BRA18%
FRA18%
NED7%
Final (0%)
FRA25%
ARG25%
USA25%
SEN25%